[SMM Analysis]Weekly Overview of Lithium Carbonate Market: Prices Rebound, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Continues

This week, the spot lithium carbonate market exhibited a fluctuating trend, initially declining and then rebounding. The center of transaction prices shifted slightly higher WoW, but the overall market remained constrained by the fundamental pattern of oversupply, with no significant easing of the supply-demand imbalance. At the beginning of the week, the market continued its previous weakness, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate falling below the 60,000 yuan/mt threshold, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices declining in tandem. Downstream cathode material enterprises maintained just-in-time procurement, and the market trading atmosphere remained sluggish. Despite occasional unverified rumors disturbing the futures market during this period, under the pressure of high inventory levels, spot prices continued to fluctuate at lows.

Moving into the mid-to-late week, lithium carbonate prices stabilized and rebounded. The slight rebound in the futures market had a certain driving effect on the spot market, leading to a slight upward shift in the center of point-based transactions priced on futures. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate gradually rebounded to around 60,600 yuan/mt. However, the price rebound was not accompanied by substantive improvements in demand. Downstream material enterprises remained cautious in their procurement strategies, preferring to lock in costs through increased long-term agreements to mitigate price fluctuation risks. On the supply side, market liquidity remained abundant. Leading lithium chemical plants maintained relatively firm quotes supported by long-term agreements, while some small and medium-sized producers, influenced by inventory pressure, had a stronger willingness to sell, resulting in a differentiated market quotation landscape.

Overall, the tug-of-war between longs and shorts in the lithium carbonate market intensified this week. Prices showed certain resilience after approaching the cost line, but the supply-demand imbalance remained the primary factor suppressing market sentiment.